Texas vs Louisville Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

It's the opening tilt in the Empire Classic when the Texas Longhorns and Louisville Cardinals meet in the Big Apple.

Louisville comes off a win against Coppin State entering this one — a rare feat under head coach Kenny Payne. The second-year headman will enter this matchup with an astonishing .171 winning percentage. That's one of the worst marks among active Power Five coaches.

No. 19 Texas has started the season strong and undefeated with a trio of wins. The Longhorns have yet to get much of a test, though. Its last Game was an excellent example of the comPetition it's faced so far, winning by double digits over Rice.

Who will get the win tonight? What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our free college basketball picks for Sunday, November 19.

Texas vs Louisville best odds

Texas vs Louisville picks and predictions

The ways to fade this Louisville Cardinals team are aptly like a Sunday buffet. The Cardinals were among the worst Power Five teams in college basketball last season — perhaps the worst — and I've seen nothing to suggest that has changed. It's head coach thinks differently, though.

"I believe we're headed in the right direction," Payne noted. "I know we're headed in the right direction."

Never mind if I'm buying that; if you take Payne's words for face value, then this matchup is still troubling. That's because there's a long way between "heading in the right direction" and competing here. 

This is still (metric-wise) the same team that went to the Maui Invitational last season, went 0-3, and failed to score over a point per possession in any of its three contests. It's lost a few players and gained a few in the transfer portal, but its parts remain the same.

Most importantly, it's still coached by the same person who has done nothing to elicit confidence in the program in well over a calendar year. The exhibition loss to NAIA Kentucky Wesleyan didn't help; the 2-1 start didn't, either.

Payne got his first home cover as a favorite against Coppin State but was 0-8 in prior attempts. That cover brought some value to this number. Especially when you consider the Coppin State team Louisville defeated could be in the conversation for the worst team in College Basketball this season; I say all that to say that I'm confidently backing Texas here, but not in the way you may think.

There have been many constants throughout the Payne era, but one of the most consistent is the failure to defend spot-up shooters adequately. This season has been much the same as we saw a year ago. After three games this year, the Cardinals rank in the Bottom 5% of basketball of spot-up set defense.

That means they've allowed 1.18 points per possession on these sets and teams to score just over half the time. This closely mirrors what we saw last season when they finished in the Bottom 10% in basketball. That's a problem in this matchup and I'm expecting Max Abmas to exploit it. 

If you could build a College Basketball player in a lab that would take advantage of poor spot-up defense, they would closely resemble Abamas. The Oral Roberts transfer has been one of the best spot-up shooters in the country throughout his collegiate career.

If the early returns from this season are any indication, that will continue with the Texas Longhorns. He started the year in the eighth percentile of spot-up shooters and shot 57% from the field on these sets. Abmas is a certified bucket-getter and has a dream matchup this evening.

Abamas has only surpassed this number once in the three Games he's played, but we're paying the most attention to the volume. He's put up double-digit shots in each Game he's played, and if we got that here, you have to feel good.

When we put this one down to brass tax, we have one of the best shooters in the country with a matchup against a team that defends shooters exceptionally poorly. I'll back that.

My best bet: Max Abmas Over 15.5 points (-110 at bet365)

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Texas vs Louisville same-game parlay

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Max Abmas Over 15.5 points 

Texas alt spread -25.5

+475 at bet365

I've played a few variations of Abmas props for some value, but we're sticking with the traditional one. 

I paired my best bet with Texas' highest potential max spread for a nice payout. I had the Horns by 27 here, and there's nothing but past evidence in our favor.

Texas' athleticism and shooting are too much for the Cardinals to keep up with. This very much feels like last year's Louisville. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis

I placed a unit on Texas to cover here and would bet it up to -18.5 points. Sure, it's a large number, but I've sufficiently explained above my lack of optimism in the Cardinals remotely competing here.

Tyrese Hunter can be a streaky shooter, but when he's open, he's near the high-end portion of shooters in college basketball. Pairing him with the more lethal Abmas feels like a death sentence for Louisville.

When the Cardinals went to Maui last season, they lost their three games by an average of 25.6 points and this feels no different. The Cardinals face significant talents in the Big Apple, and their poor coaching and lack of development will show itself again. 

I have a little opinion on the total here. The blowout potential scares me from having too much conviction on a side because bench players could be heavily relied upon to score. I lean to the Over, but there are much better ways of betting on this matchup that doesn't involve the total.

Texas vs Louisville betting trend to know

Louisville has only won six of its last 31 games (-14.55 units / -22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Louisville.

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Texas vs Louisville game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023
Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
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