Mavericks vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA
The Warriors have suddenly slipped into a cold streak, dropping their last two games, including a crushing defeat to a shorthanded Heat team at home this week. Now, they’ll look to exploit a weak Mavericks defense and attempt to get back on track.
Can the Warriors earn a rare cover as a home favorite in the NBA odds? Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Mavericks vs. Warriors on Saturday, December 30.
Mavericks vs Warriors odds
Mavericks vs Warriors predictions
It’s been a nightmare to lay points with the Warriors at home this year. They’re just 4-9 against the spread as favorites in the Bay Area, and the coup de grace was their loss to the Heat last time out, a game which didn’t feature Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, or Kyle Lowry.
With that said, the Mavericks have been almost equally as bad in these spots. They’re 3-5 ATS as road underdogs and it appears they will once again have to play without Kyrie Irving, who has been upgraded from “out” to “doubtful” but is still probably a few days away from returning to the lineup. On top of that, they didn’t have Luka Doncic in Thursday’s loss to the Timberwolves, and he’s once again listed as questionable for this tilt.
The deciding factor in this game is going to come on the perimeter, where I expect the Warriors to win. They are taking 3-pointers at a top-5 frequency in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass, and while their numbers have been rather uninspiring all season long, they can rest assured that they’ll get plenty of open looks against a Dallas team which is just 19th in defending the deep-ball. Golden State failed to knock down many 3s against the Heat last time out, but it did get plenty of open looks against a similarly-poor perimeter defense which was missing many key defenders, and I don’t expect that to continue with some shooting variance kicking in.
On top of that, the Warriors rank ninth in rim scoring, which is another area where the Mavericks have been incredibly vulnerable.
In short, I don’t know how the Mavericks’ offense will be able to compensate for the shortcomings of their defense, considering the Warriors have been average on defense, at worst, and will potentially go up against a Dallas team missing both Doncic and Irving.
It’s been scary to lay points with the Warriors at home, sure, but this situation warrants it.
My best bet: Warriors -4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Mavericks vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors -4.5
Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 3s
Klay Thompson Over 3.5 rebounds
I expect the Warriors to torch the Mavericks from deep given the state of this defense, but it’s hard to really invest in either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson here given their recent shooting slumps, and the inflated 3-point totals being offered by oddsmakers.
I’m going to pivot instead to the Brandin Podziemski odds, as he has been seeing plenty of minutes lately as the Warriors search for the right rotation. He may not be shooting from outside with the same volume as some of his teammates, but he’s knocked down multiple triples in his past two games and has been good for around five shots per game from deep. Podziemski has been looked upon for scoring since being inserted into the starting lineup, and he should be able to find himself open from outside all game long.
Then, I’m going to back the Klay Thompson odds to pull down more than three rebounds — something he did in two of three Games against the Mavericks last year. Dallas ranks 28th on the glass, and on top of that, the Warriors may be down Kevon Looney for this Game with his questionable tag.
The ball could find the hands of Thompson off the rim, and while he didn’t record a single board against the Heat, he was averaging 4.7 boards and night in 13 games prior to that point. This is a sneaky-good leg.
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Mavericks vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
Dallas and Golden State both rank inside the top half of the league in Pace, and neither team has really been strong on defense. The Warriors rank 14th in efficiency on that end to represent the stronger of the two defenses, but they’ve allowed roughly three more points per 100 possessions in their last 10 Games as the effects of Draymond Green’s suspension wear on.
Doncic is questionable, and that absence would be the only thing scaring me off of the Over in this one. It does appear he’s looking likely to play, given this line and the fact that oddsmakers are hanging player props on the Mavs’ lead man as if nothing is amiss.
The number is high, but it’s high for a reason. Both teams will look to shoot from deep all game and play up-tempo, and Dallas will be relying on its offense to compensate for poor play on the other end of the floor. With the probabilities pointing to Golden State knocking down more open 3-point looks than it did against Miami, which left it wide open all night long on Thursday, we should see both offenses feature in this one.
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Mavericks vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 53 of their last 85 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
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Mavericks vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 30, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports SW-DAL |
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