Magic vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will host Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic tonight. After digging through the NBA odds to find the best bet, am I backing Luka Magic or the Orlando Magic?

In case you missed it, Luka dropped 73 points on the Hawks Friday. Doncic shot 25-for-33 from the field, and let's face it, that was somewhat personal as Atlanta drafted him on draft night and then traded him to the Mavericks for Trae Young.

You know who else has a personal matchup tonight? Orlando head coach Jamahl Mosley.

Find out why I believe we should target the Under on Luka's points prop in my free NBA picks for the Magic vs. Mavericks on January 29.

Magic vs Mavericks odds

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Magic vs Mavericks predictions

Imagine betting the Under on a total of 37.5 points and knowing you're in for a sweat? That's what we'll have with Luka Doncic on Monday night. It speaks volumes about Doncic's current level of play, but I think we can leverage the historic game where he scored 73 and take advantage of this matchup against the Orlando Magic.

The Magic have an elite defense, and their head coach, Jamahl Mosley was the defensive coordinator for several seasons with the Dallas Mavericks before being named Orlando's HC. In other words, Mosley is very familiar with Doncic's game, and I'm sure he knows what defenses bother him better than some other head coaches around the NBA.

Not only is Mosley an excellent defensive coach, but the Magic have options for how they can guard Luka. Whether that be Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, or Jonathan Isaac, they can throw a bunch of different looks at him. Orlando used a closing lineup against the Suns on Sunday night where four players on the court were 6-foot-10 or taller, and they held PHX without a made field goal for eight minutes.

Against the Magic, Doncic won't have the typical size advantage he usually has against opposing guards, and it's not like the Mavs can go matchup hunting for him either. Orlando is loaded with defenders who can make life hard for Luka.

Do I expect Doncic to not score 30+ points? No, but I think at 37.5, the Magic have enough players who can be disruptive enough to send him Under this total. All eyes will be on Luka without Kyrie Irving in the lineup.

I'm also taking advantage of a rogue price, which drew me to this Under. DraftKings is trading the Under on Doncic at 37.5 (+100), whereas the rest of the market has it priced at -115.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Under 37.5 points (+100 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

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Magic vs Mavericks same-game parlay

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Luka Doncic Under 37.5 points

Dereck Lively Over 1.5 blocks

Franz Wagner Over 19.5 points

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I'm taking the Under on Doncic's points prop because the Magic are loaded with excellent defenders and have positional size across the board. For the same reason, I like the Over on Dereck Lively's blocks prop.

The Magic score a ton of points in the paint, which will provide Dereck Lively ample opportunity for a blocked shot. He should also see extended minutes tonight because the Mavericks will need his size and rim protection against Orlando.

I like the over on Wagner's points prop, and I almost made it my best bet. At 19.5 (-105), your edge is just so small with this points prop I wouldn't take it on as a straight bet. But, as a leg in a SGP, I'd definitely use it, relative to what I'm seeing from the other player props in this game, which aren't showing an edge.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Magic vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened as a 5-point favorite at FanDuel and is now trading as a 4-point favorite. For me, this signals that some of the Magic players who are questionable such as Markelle Fultz and Isaac will play. Make sure to shop around for the best number on this spread as there's a bunch of Mavericks -4.5 in the market.

The total opened at 228.5 at DraftKings, and while we initially saw it surge to 230, it has since fallen back down to 227.5. This is a consensus number in the market at the moment, but I wouldn't be shocked if you saw it dip down a little further to 227 and settle there.

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Magic vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q game total Under in 24 of their last 32 games (+15.05 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Mavericks.

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Magic vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Monday, January 29, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports SW-DAL, Bally Sports Florida
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